EBRD: the economy of Uzbekistan can grow from 6.5 percent in 2023-2024

According to the expectations of the European bank for reconstruction and development, the growth of the economy of Central Asian countries will be 5.2% in 2023, and 5.4% in 2024. High interest rates, inflation, and increased product prices can negatively impact regional growth in the long term.
According to the forecasts of the European bank for reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the economy of Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will grow by an average of 5.2% in 2023. This was cited in the organization's “Regional Economic Forecast” report.

"Due to the migration of enterprises and individuals from Russia, improved management, increased exports of goods and new contacts with China, the region is expected to have an economic growth of about 5.4 percent in 2024.

The economies of the countries of Central Asia showed their resistance to the unpleasant geopolitical phenomenon associated with the Russian war against Ukraine. As an intermediary in the gap caused by the withdrawal of most of the region's economies from the Russian market by international firms, it strengthened trade cooperation with Russia by supplying its products. The volume of foreign transfers to Central Asia has increased significantly, which has served to increase bank deposits and profits. The displacement of Russian firms and individuals has increased demand in the retail, real estate and hotel system,” the EBRD report said.

It is noted that against the background of the strong labor demand in Russia and the strengthening of the ruble, transfers of labor migrants also increased.

"Growth continued throughout the region in the first quarter of 2023, with consumer price inflation in most countries far exceeding the target ranges set by central banks. The economies of the region may continue to grow rapidly in the near future, but uncertainty about interest rates, inflation and global trends in the price of raw materials remains,” the experts of the EBRD noted.

Forecasts for Uzbekistan

In 2022, Uzbekistan's economy recorded 5.7 percent growth. This was greatly influenced by a significant improvement in both external and internal demand, including a more than doubling of money transfers.

"Uzbekistan's economy is expected to grow from 6.5 percent in 2023 and 2024. This is caused by reforms aimed at improving foreign investment, the penetration of companies and individuals, privatization and the business environment. Despite the relative diversification, economic growth can be hindered by the further escalation of Russia's war against Ukraine and the reduction of money transfers,” the report said.