- 9
- 23.05.2023 08:03:00
- 6 min read
In the first four months of 2023, Uzbekistan's foreign trade turnover was $ 19.6 billion. China's share in this is 17 percent. In April alone, $ 650 million worth of gold and nearly $ 90 million worth of gas were exported. In particular, gas supplies to China have been resumed.
The statistics agency has published information on Uzbekistan's foreign trade turnover in January-April 2023.
It is noted that during the reporting period, the Republic's foreign trade turnover (TSA) reached $ 19.6 billion. In this case, the volume of exports was $ 7.7 billion, and the volume of imports was $ 11.9 billion. Compared with the corresponding period of last year, the volume of exports increased by 6.2 percent, the volume of imports-by 18.6 percent. And the negative trade salute reached $ 4.2 billion.
Growing dependence on China in foreign trade
Uzbekistan's dependence on China in foreign trade relations is increasing. In particular, a TSA of nearly $ 970 million was observed between the two states in April. Since the beginning of the year, China's turnover with Uzbekistan has reached $ 3.3 billion.During the reporting period, the relatively significant contribution of the TSA was recorded with the PRC (17 percent), Russia (15.1 percent), Kazakhstan (7.7 percent), Turkey (5.4 percent), Korea (4.1 percent), Germany (4 percent) and Kyrgyzstan (1.7 percent).
Of the 20 major partner countries in foreign economic activity, only three countries – Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan-have a positive foreign trade balance. The balance of passive foreign trade remains with the remaining 17 states.
The volume of exports without gold is shrinking
In April, the volume of exports to our main trading partners: China, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey has significantly reduced. Economist Mirkomil Holboyev noted that the amount of non-gold exports decreased by 5% compared to the corresponding period last year.
"Very high growth in a suitable period will partially explain the reduction in exports to our main trading partner countries, in particular Kazakhstan and Russia (high base). But the reduction in exports to Russia began as early as March (which could be a signal).
The reduction in exports to Turkey and China continues as in previous months. In spite of the recovery of economic activity in China, exports are shrinking at a serious level. In particular, since July last year, exports to China grew only in September, while it has shrunk in all other months. Including in April, exports to China fell by 25 percent. And our imports from this state grew by 18 percent in April.
The reason for the continuation of the expansionist policy in Turkey is that our exports to this state have been shrinking for 7 months in a row. Our imports from Turkey have shrunk by 22% in April alone during this period, and have grown to normal levels in all the remaining months”.
Mirkomil Kholboyev concludes that the main hope for the growth of Uzbekistan's exports this year will be from the high level of gold prices. Because even in the coming months, expectations for a high increase in the volume of trade with the main partner countries are not optimistic.
The reduction in exports in the direction of Russia and Kazakhstan may be associated with Western sanctions
Economist Otabek Bakirov argues that the reduction in the volume of exports to Russia and Kazakhstan may have been influenced by warnings from representatives of the United States and the European Union.
“In my opinion, one should not hurry to draw final conclusions. The reason may be that the reduction in exports (especially in the direction of Russia and Kazakhstan) is due to the re-export of sanctioning goods. This can also be hinted at a decrease in the growth rate of imports, a decrease in the exports of a number of commodity groups, such as generators and machine equipment, which are not produced at all in Uzbekistan. That is, a good suspicion is that the export of sanction goods to Russia may have stopped within the framework of the Kremlin's "parallel import" policy. Remember the warnings of the representatives of the United States and the European Union in April on this right, it is not necessary to mention the sanctions imposed on the sanctioned oligarch and his assets, which are still alive in Uzbekistan. In addition, it is natural that in the list of subjects subject to sanction in the European sanction package 11, there are also leaks about enterprises and individuals from Uzbekistan.
But I am worried that our traditional export goods began to decline in exports of fruits and vegetables (in size), spinning threads and fabrics, non-ferrous metals, fertilizers,” says The Economist.
Gold export
In January-April of this year, gold worth 3 billion dollars was sold. This represents 40% of total exports. In turn, gold exports increased by 3% when compared with the corresponding period of 2022.
Against the background of increasing prices for gold in the world market, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan may have carried out a large export of precious metal during January-April.
For reference, $ 4.1 bn was sold in 2022, $ 4.1 bn in 2021, $ 5.8 bn in 2020, and $ 4.9 bn in 2019.
Export and import of fuel products
According to official statistics, in the first 4 months of this year, Uzbekistan imported $ 153 million of gas, which is 2.4 times more than in the corresponding period of 2022. In turn, during this period, gas exports decreased by 54.9 percent or up to 118 million dollars. However, in April, gas exports were made worth more than $ 90 million.
"According to Chinese statistics, $ 40.5 million of gas was imported from Uzbekistan in April. Gas exports from Uzbekistan to China last occurred in December last year.
According to Uzbek statistics, gas exports totalled around $ 90 million were carried out in April. The geography of gas exports is not disclosed in the forty of states. According to long-term contracts, Uzbekistan, in addition to China, also carries out gas exports to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,” writes economist Otabek Bakirov.
Also, in January-April 2023, $ 54.7 million of coal was imported, a 40.8 percent increase over the corresponding period of the previous year.
During the reporting period, $ 48.6 million worth of electricity was purchased and $ 33.4 million worth of electricity was exported.
Exports of oil and petroleum products increased by 89 percent to $ 64.4 million, and imports increased by 45.9 percent to $ 621.7 million.
