Israel wants to start a ground operation in Gaza, what are the possible plans?

The Israeli army announced that it is ready to conduct a large-scale military operation against the Hamas movement. "The Gaza Strip will never be the same," Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant told the military.
Israel has cut off food, water, fuel and electricity supplies to the sector, and its army is launching artillery strikes and airstrikes on Hamas targets. The representatives of the movement threatened to execute hostages of Israelis and foreigners if Israel continues the bombing.

According to Israel's ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, 100-150 hostages are being held in Gaza during a raid by members of Hamas on Israeli territory. To date, the number of victims of the attack has reached 1,300 people - most of them are civilians living in border settlements and foreigners who participated in the music festival. The number of Palestinians killed by Israel's retaliatory strikes has exceeded 1,400.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has deployed hundreds of thousands of infantry and armored tank units to the border with the Gaza Strip.

But the military command does not seem to want to speed things up - officials have warned that the war will be long and that victory over Hamas will not be a matter of days or weeks.

What are the scenarios for the upcoming ground operation in Gaza and what challenges will the Israeli army inevitably face?

The Gaza Strip is a Palestinian enclave on the Mediterranean coast, surrounded by a fence system in the north and east from Israel and in the south from Egypt. Its area is 363 square meters. km., but the population is more than 2.2 million people.

Considering the absence of skyscrapers, one can imagine how densely built residential houses are here. In addition, the sector also has agricultural areas consisting of fields and pastures.

The area is controlled by the Hamas group, which has tens of thousands of armed fighters and is supported by the local population.

"Hamas has 40,000 fighters in its reinforcement structures, and this is an army-type structure - discipline, long preparation for defense, tens of kilometers of tunnels and bunkers have been dug under Gaza," said Israeli military expert David Sharp in an interview with the BBC. According to his estimates, the second largest group in Gaza, the Islamic Jihad group, has another 10,000 fighters.

"Their weapons are not bad, in addition to small arms, they have many explosive devices, grenade launchers, anti-tank missile systems, including the Russian Kornet systems, they have countless shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missile systems, 120 mm mortars . The missile arsenal of "Islamic Jihad" and Hamas is 15,000 or more, and these missiles can travel from seven to 150 kilometers," he said.

"A very difficult task"

Since 2005, when the Israeli army was withdrawn from Gaza and the Jewish villages were relocated, TsAHAL forces have conducted military operations here at least eight times - twice in 2006, in 2008, in late 2008 and early 2009, in 2012, in 2014. , in May 2021 and 2023.

All of these were limited in time and scope and aimed at forcing peace in response to rocket attacks and attempts to attack Israeli territory. These practices solved the problem, but not for long.

The current situation is completely different. Israel has not lost so many people at one time since the Arab-Israeli war, so Israelis see Saturday's attack as a serious threat to the existence of the state, not just another Palestinian diversion.

Based on this, an unprecedented level of retaliation was decided - Israel plans to destroy the Hamas movement, first of all, its military wing, which is recognized as a terrorist organization not only in Israel, but also in the United States, Great Britain and the European Union.

"We are talking about a far-sighted and clear goal - to completely or almost completely control the sector. This is a very difficult task," says David Sharp.

Threats to Israel also come from other directions — primarily from southern Lebanon, home to the Iranian-influenced Hezbollah group, which is more powerful than Hamas, as well as Syria, which is hostile to the Jewish state, and the Jordan River basin. from the west coast as well.

The Israeli army has experience in conducting military operations, is well armed, technologically advanced and can fight on several fronts at the same time. This army has in the past been able to stand alone against large numbers of regular formations. But now it's not about that. The question is how to move in Gaza.

The first scenario is traditional

As before, the Israeli army conducts heavy artillery training before the ground invasion. First of all, military facilities - control and communication centers, warehouses, places where the opponent's live forces are gathered, etc. will be destroyed.

With continued fire support, armored tank units and infantry attack from different directions, break through the defensive line and suppress pockets of resistance, while the targets for artillery strikes are also accurate from the air. will be given. The opponent's wireless radio communication is disabled through powerful radio electronic warfare.

Main high-rise buildings, as well as entrances to underground tunnels, will be destroyed or blocked. In the final phase, Israeli special forces will finish off the scattered squads hiding among the destroyed buildings and in the basements and capture their commanders.

Easy to say…

The organizers of the attack on Israel took this development into account and were well prepared for it.

The area around the Gaza Strip is open, and even the simplest aerial reconnaissance tools, such as cheap Chinese drones, can detect the concentration of enemy troops and equipment. Therefore, the ground attack factor cannot be relied upon in the planning of ground operations.

Minefields in the main line of attack are unlikely to pose a serious threat if a major ground operation is decided upon - the Israeli army has enough modern demining equipment to overcome such obstacles. But there is something worse.

The classic pattern of modern offensive operations is as follows: artillery fire along the front lines of the enemy until the armored vehicles and the following infantry are within 200-300 meters of the first trenches, after which the blows are directed into the enemy's interior.

Is the Israeli army trained for this? No doubt. Does he dare to use such tactics when the enemy's positions are spread over densely populated districts? This is more of a rhetorical question.

In urban battles, mobility with light-armed mobile units is more effective - both for the attacking side and for the defending side.

The defending party knows the area better, has ammunition depots, can rely on the help of the local population, and can hide behind them in case of need.

The attacking party is forced to rely more on the support of combat vehicles, and in the narrow streets of cities, these vehicles become easy targets.

Underground tunnels also pose a special problem for TsAHAL. Thanks to the efforts of Palestinian engineers, these devices are no longer as simple as before. An entire underground city has been built under the Gaza Strip - a complex system of corridors connects barracks with ammunition depots and has hundreds of roads leading to the top. For example, through the barn of a lonely old woman.

The Palestinians may be holding the hostages in such places, and in this case, their release will be a very difficult task.

The second scenario is a siege

In fact, the siege has already begun - the sector has been cut off from fuel and electricity.

It makes sense, but it's also a predictable move. Combatants (military) who are prepared for the blockade in advance feel the discomfort much later than the general population.

The food and fuel that Hamas members have at their disposal will allow them to last longer, but the same cannot be said for the rest of the population of Gaza.

In such conditions, a seemingly peaceful decision can have more serious consequences than in a military operation. In a city cut off from the means of civilization, famine and epidemics soon break out.

In this case, it is necessary to immediately open humanitarian corridors, set up filtration camps, and place refugees somewhere. Considering that more than two million people live in the Gaza Strip, there may be a humanitarian crisis that Israel cannot solve alone. And then the rod will break on Israel's head.

At the same time, the blockade cannot be an alternative to ground operations - Israel will have to conduct them anyway. It would be naïve to expect Hamas fighters to starve and surrender with their hands up.

Choose between bad and very bad

This is exactly the situation Icroil finds itself in. The military wing of the Hamas movement has never been as powerful as it is now. Its fighters and commanders are well-armed and seasoned in street battles.

The physical destruction of the leadership of Hamas and its active members will certainly not solve the problem in Israel's relations with the Arab world.

But the situation observed in border towns and kibbutzim prompts Israel to take urgent measures.

In terms of scale, the future operation in Gaza can be compared to the battle for the liberation of the Iraqi city of Mosul, which was captured by ISIS militants in 2015-2016. The fighting for the city of two million people lasted nine months, thousands of people were killed (according to some sources - tens of thousands), more than a million people became refugees.

"From a purely military point of view, a ground operation could lead to short-term success and the elimination of most of the Hamas commanders. But given that there will be no long-term peace agreement with Hamas, it is likely that it will revive, and its ranks will be filled by a new generation of radicalized youth," writes BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner.

source: kun.uz